Alaska Mine Development Accelerates, LME Copper Edged Down Slightly Last Night [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened overnight at $10,783.5/mt, initially climbed to $10,815/mt, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of $10,661/mt near the close, before fluctuating upward to finally settle at $10,701/mt, down 0.23%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 321,000 lots. SHFE copper was closed overnight.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On October 7, US President Donald Trump approved the Ambler Road Project to develop Alaska's abundant critical mineral resources. The project plans to build a 211-mile industrial road connecting the Dalton Highway to the remote Ambler mining district, providing transportation access for key minerals such as copper, cobalt, gallium, and germanium. Trump directed federal agencies to reissue permits to accelerate the construction process. The US government will invest $35.6 million in Trilogy Metals for a 10% equity stake and support exploration activities. The road will provide access to over 1,700 mining claims and generate over $1.1 billion in tax and royalty revenues for Alaska.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 30, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 90 yuan/mt, with the average price at a premium of 15 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 82,960-83,520 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper started at 83,630 yuan/mt, pulled back and continued to decline to 83,000 yuan/mt, before rebounding to 83,280 yuan/mt near the close. The inter-month spread continued to fluctuate near 0, and the import loss for SHFE copper's front-month contract widened to nearly 900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead after the holiday, considering the high funding costs due to high copper prices, suppliers are expected to refuse to budge on prices and quote premiums up to 100 yuan/mt. Additionally, as there are profit opportunities for copper cathode exports recently, smelters are expected to plan related export activities during the holiday. Although imported copper will supplement supply after the holiday, domestic supply is tight approaching delivery, and premiums are expected to be firm.

(2) Guangdong: On September 30, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 90 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, with the average at 0 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 83,365 yuan/mt, up 1,175 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 83,275 yuan/mt, up 1,185 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with tight market supply, suppliers actively refused to budge on prices, and spot premiums rose.

(3) Imported copper: On September 30, warrant prices were $46-54/mt, QP October, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $46-62/mt, QP October, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $22-30/mt, QP October, with the average price down $6/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in the first and middle ten days of October.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 30, the futures closing price was 83,240 yuan/mt, up 890 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 15 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 500 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 75,200-75,400 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,149 yuan/mt, up 378 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,560 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices surged again during the day, but some secondary copper rod enterprises and recycled copper raw materials traders had already entered the holiday, resulting in muted market transactions.

(5) Inventories: On September 29, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 500 mt to 143,400 mt; on September 30, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 1,220 mt to 26,823 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US federal government shutdown continued. In the recent sixth round of voting, the Senate again rejected the bipartisan funding bill, leading to the suspension of US government-related economic data releases, which pushed the US dollar index higher and put copper prices under pressure. Additionally, the US Fed's September meeting minutes revealed internal disagreements among officials on interest rates but cautiously hinted at possible further interest rate cuts this year. On the fundamentals, supply side, imported copper continued to arrive but the replenishment was limited, while domestic supply arrivals were relatively low. Coupled with the approaching delivery, overall supply tightened. Demand side, suppressed by high copper prices, downstream purchase willingness was insufficient after the holiday, and consumption performance was weak. Overall, copper prices were expected to find support today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]